Tracking the First Universal Climate Treaty – from Durban, 2011 to Paris, 2015
Richard Widick – THIS PAGE IS NO LONGER BEING MAINTAINED – Archived 1/1/2016
In 2015 I dedicated the year at IICAT to tracking the production of the next universal climate treaty, which was adopted at the Paris Climate Conference on December 15.
The central column of this page begins with these notes on the how the UN process produced the negotiating text of February 25, 2015, then goes on to present my running analysis of the various social forces converging in the process, as they are unfolding [scroll down to UNFOLDING EVENTS].
See the MAIN PAGE of my Research Archive for an introduction to my previous research and how it culminates in this project, in my current manuscript Climate of Empire, and in the film CLIMATE DEADLINE: Paris, December 2015.
The first Negotiating Text of the treaty was dated February 25, 2015, but Bloomberg reported on July 24 that the Co-Chairs of the ADP have edited down that 88 page so-called Geneva Negotiating Text (GNT) of February 25th, 2015 to 19 pages — read this 19 page Skeletal Paris Agreement and the Draft Decision in the July 24, 2014 Scenario Note on the 10th Part of the 2nd Session of the ADP, prepared by the Co-Chairs in preparation for the next Bonn climate talks, to be convened August 31 – September 4, 2015. [But see also the June 11, 2015 “Streamlined and Consolidated Text” from the Bonn Intercessional climate talks].
Read the nations’ Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) listed here in the order in which they are being submitted.
Definitions and explanations of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions process are provided on the UNFCCC’s INDC portal.
Read the running collection of Submissions to the Paris Climate Treaty from UNFCCC Observer, Non-governmental and Inter-governmental Organizations; Sierra Club; ILO.
A major component of the UN work takes place under the [Technology Transfer track]—see for example this UNFCCC page on the REGATTA Knowledge Platform for Climate Action.
Various organizations and individuals from the relatively autonomous economic, public sphere, and state (governance) sectors are also tracking the production of the Paris climate accord, from their own perspective and advancing their own interests.
Follow these links to organizations in each of the three spheres that are also tracking the negotiations:
Treaty Watchers in the Economic Sphere
C2ES: See also C2ES’s ANALYSIS of COP 20: Outcomes of the UN Climate Change Conference in Lima, whose Board of Directors includes top players from Barclays Bank, Royal Dutch Shell, General Electric:
C2ES Analysis: Structure of a 2015 Agreement, written by Sandra Day O’Connor, et. al.
C2ES Analysis: Key Legal Issues in a 2015 Climate Agreement, written by Sandra Day O’Connor, et. al.
C2ES Analysis: Core Issues in the Paris Climate Talks, including Differentiation, Finance, Adaptation, Legal Character, Transparency, and Ambition.
Treaty Watchers in the Civil Society and the Public Sphere
Carbon Brief: Tracking the INDCs (pledges);
“The “Climate Action Tracker” is an independent science-based assessment, which tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries. The website provides an up-to-date assessment of individual national pledges, targets and INDCs and currently implemented policy to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.”
Treaty Watchers in the State Sphere (Governance)
Of course, the UNFCCC itself is the principal bureaucratic archive of power, and tracking the production of the 2015 Paris climate accord necessarily begins there.
1. UNFCCC News Room – aggregating world news reports on the UN climate process in general.
2. History of the new treaty process – The Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (2011-2015)
3. Recent Negotiating Sessions (Bonn, Geneva, Lima) and Upcoming Sessions (Bonn in August; Bonn again in October; Paris November & December);
>>> Read more on Emergent Global Climate/Environmental Governance on the IICAT page devoted to the State Sphere: The State & Global Governance
4. The NATIONAL PARTIES’ and other Submissions to the DURBAN PLATFORM
2. UNFCCC page compiling Party Submissions to the Durban Platform in advance of the Bonn meeting (October) prior to COP 20 in Lima.
3. US Submission, September 2014.
The UNFCCC dedicates this web page to documenting progress on the new treaty process, called the Advanced Working Group on The Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (AWG-ADP, or ADP for short).
The Lima Call for Climate Action: This is the name given to the Lima outcome, which was officially published on December 13, 2014, under the official title Decision -/CP.20 The Lima Call to Climate Action
IISD – The ADP Prepares for Lima: “Under the ADP’s work-stream 1 (the 2015 agreement), countries continued to elaborate the elements of a draft negotiating text, which will serve as the foundation for the final construction of the 2015 agreement, and considered a “non-paper” on parties’ views and proposals on the elements for a draft negotiating text (ADP.2014.6.NonPaper). The ADP also worked on a draft decision that captures the type of information countries will provide when they communicate their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) and how these contributions will potentially be considered (ADP.2014.7.DraftText). During the meeting, the ADP Co-Chairs prepared a new iteration of this draft decision, which will be submitted for consideration in Lima.”
read more: http://climate-l.iisd.org/news/adp-prepares-for-lima/266006/
Additional Selected Documents – first published in advance of the 6th part of the 2nd Session of the ADP – The Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (the next universal climate treaty—to be adopted in 2015 at Paris, COP 21 and implemented in 2020) [provided for historical context, to show how the documents are changing over time]:
1. Scenario note on the Sixth Part of the Second Session of the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (July 7, 2014)
2. Parties’ views and proposals on the elements for a draft negotiating text (July 7, 2014) -The NON-PAPER
3. Intended nationally determined contributions of Parties in the context of the 2015 agreement DRAFT TEXT (July 7, 2014)
4. Accelerating the implementation of enhanced pre-2020 climate action DRAFT TEXT (July 7, 2014)
5. Oct 2014, New Zealand’s Submission to the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (endorsed by Todd Stern of the US; lambasted by advocates of climate justice as weak, unbinding, a free pass for historically responsible nations, and a violation of the basic principle that the polluter must pay).
1. National Submissions to the Durban Platform – with links to the UNFCCC original documents, broken down as follows
SUBMISSIONS FROM OBSERVERS
1. UNFCCC page on Submission to the NEW TREATY (ADP) from Observers (NGOs):
2. UNFCC page on Submissions from Observers (not specifically the ADP).
3. Climate Action Network International (CAN), Oct. 17, 2014 submission on “Independent Nationally Determined Contributions.” — see also the Working Group on Equity for previous important submissions.
THE DRAFT TREATY
Up though the October 2015
Bonn Climate Conference
The current Negotiating Text of the treaty is still dated February 25, 2015, but as Bloomberg reports on July 24, the Co-Chairs of the ADP edited down that 88 page so-called Geneva Negotiating Text (GNT) of February 25th, 2015 to 19 pages — read this 19 page Skeletal Paris Agreement and the Draft Decision in the July 24, 2014 Scenario Note on the 10th Part of the 2nd Session of the ADP, which was prepared by the Co-Chairs the next Bonn climate talks August 31 – September 4, 2015.
[But see also the June 11, 2015 “Streamlined and Consolidated Text” from the Bonn Intercessional climate talks].
The draft prior to the February 25 GNT had been published on February 12, 2015, in preparation for the Geneva climate talks, and before that as an Annex in The Lima Call for Climate Action, the outcome document from the COP 20 in Lima, December 13, 2014, under the official title Decision -/CP.20 The Lima Call to Climate Action
See also the archive of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) that have been submitted.
For some reason the European INDC is not listed on the UNFCCC INDC page, so here is the link.
See also the February 8 – 13, 2015 meetings in Geneva — and read the January 29, 2015 Scenario Note on the Eighth Part of the Second Session of the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP 2-8 — ADP being the official name of the treaty process; 2-8 indicating 2nd session of the 8th part). [as reported by IISD: 1. Earth Negotiations Bulletin, ADP 2-8 #1 , ADP 2-8 #2, ADP 2-8 #3.]
The Scenario Note includes a recap of the treaty work accomplished at Lima COP 20 and explains the path to Paris, which will include two more additional negotiating sessions, first beginning in Bonn on August 31, 2015, then again in Bonn from in October 19 – 23, 2015.
See also, the US – China Bilateral Agreement (announced before COP 20 in Lima, 2014).
See also the European Union’s 2030 Framework.
Geneva, Switzerland, Feb. 8 – 13, 2015
The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) reported as follows from the Geneva Climate Change Conference, which opened today:
Also recommended – the IISD Climate Change Policy and Practice feed.
See also the New Treaty being explained for the most general audiences in the following Lima COP 20 WEBCASTS:
The following highlights are drawn from the UNFCCC LIMA COP 20 Webcast Archive — see how IICAT’s three What Now for Climate Justice? Press Conferences fit into the public sphere debate. You will also find the big green NGOs, the business and finance sector NGOs, the carbon traders, the nations, and the secretariat all going on the record.
As concerns the new treaty process specifically, see especially:
1. OPENING PLENARY, Lima COP 20, Dec. 1, 2014 — at which Dr. R. K. Pachauri, Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) delivers a recap on the emerging science and the UNFCCC Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres describes the new, hybrid, bottom-up/top-down structure of the treaty under negotiation.
2. UNFCCC PRESS CONFERENCE, Lima COP 20, , December 1, 2014 — Secretary Cristina Figueres and Peruvian Environment Minister/COP President opening Press Conference.
3. Opening of [the Durban Platform] (ADP), Lima COP 20.
UNFOLDING EVENTS leading up to Paris, June through December, 2015
The Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership (TPP) is supposed t wrap up in Maui, HW, USA by the end of July: Read this NYT article and follow the links; see also my e-mail notes, hard copy notes, and all the China-US notes on the Climate bi-later: remember that the first and second contradictions in capitalism express themselves allegorically on these parallel axes; and this is the basis of my argument in Climate of Empire. The final week of negotiations; NYTs says pharma is holding up the deal; Jul 31, 2015 NYT TPP Talks Break Down On Pharma and Agriculture;
The June climate talks in Bonn. Read all of the official documents on the ADP Session page, including the June 11 “Streamlined and Consolidated Text,” the “Working Document,” and “The Way Forward,” [See also below section The August climate talks in Bonn]
The G7 climate agreement: E3g; read the Oxfam country reports on the G7 coal phaseout – here is Oxfam’s US country report. Here is the German G7 documents archive. Here is the June 15, 2015 G7 Summit Statement, read the section on Climate Change.
Laudato Si. The Pope’s May 24, 2015 Encyclical, Laudato Si; The Pope at the world conference of Mayors.
Third International Conference on Development Finance, Ethiopia. IISD;
The Greek/Euro crisis. deep history; July 2015 New Statesman interview with Yais Varoufakis, Greece’s recently resigned finance minister (indicating the depp ideological structure of power and how it operates in the EU). Vaoufakis explains why the reform package agreed in July will fail; it will strengthen the fascist Golden Dawn movement party; read about his first radio interview, and listen to the interview (Late Nite Live, July 13, 2015). Hans Werner Sinn 7/25/15 NYT editorial on the next wave of Greek austerity, and the failed experiment. Joseph H. Stiglitz’s 7/2/15 NYTs editorial “Greece, the Sacrificial Lamb.” Chomsky Democracy Now! Transcript analyzes austerity imposed during recession as class warfare akin to US style austerity, etc. August 22, 2015, Greece government purging the left in new elections (planned), new party forms on left with marxist Lazaris Guardian UK..
Climate Summit of the America’s, Ontario (July 7-9). IISD;
Paraguay’s INDC submission and the deep history of the Latin American ‘3rd Way.’ Americas Journal, “At the core of AILAC’s position is their take on the thorny issue of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR+RC), a centerpiece of the 1992 UN Climate Change Convention that dictates how emission reductions should be tackled between developed and developing countries. AILAC maintains that the principle of CBDR+RC should apply to all countries, and should not been seen as an excuse for those in the developing world to refuse to take on emissions targets themselves;
US Presidential Politics are impacting the UN Climate Talks; NYTs on 7/27/15 notes both Tom Steyer’s pledge and Clinton’s answer; Clinton’s Climate Plan in the News; NYTs polling shows Republican climate deniers face political trouble; the Guardian on Aug. 2 reports that Obama tightens power plant regulations to 32% reduction in emissions by 2030; the realit behind the lack of ambition in Obama’s new power plan regs (see this Carbon Tax Center analysis; here is the rule itself.
Price of Carbon? The Economist Intelligence Unit summary report and Full Report of July, 2015 (see it in the NYT and the Guardian); see also the Asset Owners Disclosure Project (Media Release; the Report)
Coal. Even Rachel Kyte at the World Bank is rallying against it + see the link to the report on Peabody Coal’s ‘rebranding’ of coal as the cure to global poverty; it’s a ruse. Aug 6, 2015 NYTs analysis collapse of coal, bankruptcies, lay-offs, rise of solar and gas, “mkt forces, not environmentalism” are causing the fall of King Coal(ideology!);
Avaaz. Avaaz.org. See this July 12 Avaaz fundraising and Strategy letter. The online networking tool gurus with 20 million to spend on Paris, COP 21 — these folks will ensure a certain level of spectacular attention; but critics in CJN follw their influence all the way back to Copenhagen (see the Bond and Dorsey e-mails, as well as the follow ups). Avaas funding letter of July 2015 included this link ti UN Guardian from January on Reasons to Expect a Real Climate Deal from Paris.
Global Climate Strike. {see sidebar links on the IICAT Climate Justice Movements Pages}. See also LINGO on November 30 Climate Strike.
Climate Games. {see sidebar links on the IICAT Climate Justice Movements Pages}
UN Sustainable Development Goals UN SDGs agreed, and announced, for adoption by the General Assembly in September, 2015: the Announcement; the 17 new goals (whereas there had been only 8 Millennium Development Goals).
The August 30 – September 4, 2015 climate talks in Bonn. Bloomberg reports on July 24 that the Co-Chairs of the ADP have edited down the 88 page draft text Geneva Negotiating Text (GNT) of February 25th, 2015 to 19 pages — read this 19 page Skeletal Paris Agreement and the Draft Decision in the July 24, 2014 Scenario Note on the 10th Part of the 2nd Session of the ADP, prepared by the Co-Chairs in preparation for the next Bonn climate talks, to be convened August 31 – September 4, 2015 . [But see also the June 11, 2015 “Streamlined and Consolidated Text” from the Bonn Intercessional climate talks].
The above-linked Scenario Note contains the May 5, 2015 ‘Skeletal Outline for a Paris Decision,’ officially titled “Skeletal Paris Decision,” (May 5, 2015).
The Paris Mirage? Compare BP’s 2015 Statistical Review of World Energy to the LINGO statement on The Paris Mirage.
The Case of California. California again providing domestic leadership, as follows “SB 32 will extend the state’s emission reduction targets to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050, and SB 350 will require California to get half of its electricity from renewable sources, reduce oil use by half, and improve energy efficiency of our homes and buildings by half—all by 2030. These bills will ensure that we continue to grow California’s low carbon economy, but their impacts will go beyond the state’s borders. Many states and nations already look to California for leadership in creating solutions to global warming. By taking bold yet practical action once again, the Golden State will set a model for others to follow” (from the August 20, 2015 email from Union of Concerned Scientists).
California Legislation to cut the state’s petroleum usage in half by 2030 is titled S.B. 350; again, California is on the cutting edge, but the Western States Petroleum Association and many others are opposed.
INDCs … as air grabs … and divestment lawsuits for decarbonization: novel “solutions” emerging from bankers and traders on the cusp of Paris.
Direct Actions: Against the Garzweiler lignite coal mine in Rhineland of Germany, the so-called Ende Galande action of August, 2015.
ANALYSIS. August 21, 2015. The 1% analysis turns on $32 trillion in offshore accounts; compare to Dorsey remarks at IICAT PC 2 in Lima, 2o14 – $30 billion per year to end world hunger, $100 billion per year for the GCF? What are these numbers compared to the degree of concentrated wealth? This shows the political nature of the problem, and the role of the Spectacle, the permanent opium war against progressive policy on redistribution. Add black prophetic fire and get the bern. The complex 3-way competition that sets the price expressed in corporate culture (Amazon).
Climate Fiction – in the Atlantic, and the Guardian.
LSE and Grantham Institute publish analysis of the INDCs submitted so far … the result: they are not on target to establish a 50% chance of staying under 2 degrees average temperature rise.
Carbon Trading under fire as the Aug. Bonn climate talks begin – Stockholm Institute releases report; failure to reduce emissions; lead to 600+ million tons of additional emissions; Joint Implementation especially in Russia and Ukraine are fingered;
The Bonn Climate Conference , Aug. 31 – September 4. Watch all the UNFCCC Press Conferences here – especially those of CAN ITL Guardian says the talks stalled, were inconclusive…
DRAFT TEXT – First comprehensive draft text promised (the link is to the UNFCCC Newsroom report) at recent Bonn conference; it will be authored by the Co-Chairs of the ADP and released soon for the final Bonn conference before Paris; also reported in Carbon Brief; see also this excellent “explainer” of the process of producing the draft (this includes a detailed synopsis of the July 24 draft text by the co-chairs){and here Carbon Brief details the June 11 Bonn coinference progress that set the current stage}.
Obama’s CLEAN POWER PLAN (EPA); explained at the White House site; reported in NYT;
The UN General Assembly, September 2015.… All eyes now turn to the General Assembly, which will adopt a new set of Sustainable Development Goals; can they ramp up the ambition needed before the final 5 days of Bonn negotiations. In the Guardian.
The Guardian’s Paris preparatory site…
Parameters of the liberal model for global self governance include the potential horizon of global climate apartheid and the rise of future fascist reactions to ecological threat: see i.e. Yale Professor of History Timothy Synder on the speculative future lebensraum and the common discourse of Western Values (i.e. the spectacle of the climate talks) under siege, for example by competition from so-called authoritarian capitalism [Chinese ajthoritarianism; Russian revanchism and dictatorship; radical Islam; (about which cross to Zizek in Living in the End Times, etc.); Asia and Africa as outside the ‘western’ universalism of both democratic liberalism and communist movements.
Union of Concerned Scientists publishes report – The Climate Deception Dossiers, July 2015; read their page on the release + Andrew Revkin’s report in the NY Times;
Week of September 21 – 25: UN General Assembly, US Climate Change Legislation, The Pope in Congress, Volkswagon’s diesel engine emissions software cheat exposes the basic internal contradiction in fossil-fueled private property rights-driven industrial expansion (avoided cost equals profit; they made billions from avoiding the regulations) — all about climate change policy:
UN Sustainable Development Goals and Global Tax Avoidance are part of the same configuration; read the Guardian on global tax avoidance and emergent global social contract;
The Cantwell Climate Change Bill goes before congress on Sept 22, 2015:
The FEE ON CARBON lobby, in Bloomberg; follow these links back through to the Carbon Majors and compare.
OCTOBER 1, 2015, India Submits INDC – NYT reports and analyses and editorializes the INDC line up so far: India does not commit to absolute reductions, but rather to increase emissions more slowly that it would otherwise do;
“At the core of India’s proposal is a commitment to reduce the intensity of its fossil fuel emissions 33 percent to 35 percent from 2005 levels by 2030, while producing 40 percent of its electricity from non-fossil-fuel sources such as wind, solar power, hydropower and nuclear energy by the same year.”
Under the terms of the plan, India’s economy would grow roughly sevenfold by 2030, compared with 2005 levels, while its carbon emissions would triple. Yet if India took no action, emissions would also grow sevenfold. …
However, in rapidly expanding the use of renewable and other zero-carbon forms of technology, the Indians do demand the “transfer of technology” from other countries, as well as aid from the Green Climate Fund, an entity established by the United Nations to solicit donations from wealthy countries to help poor countries adapt their economies to lower-carbon technologies.”
IISD Special Page on COP 21 is up and running; with a compendium of new releases back through the summer: on UN Climate Week (with analysis of relationships between UN Gen Assembly and the COP, etc..
Climate Interactive releases a report analyzing the Ambition Gap; the pledges so far will reduce warming by 1 degree, from 4.5C to 3.5C (this came about before the India INDC was released; were Indian commitments included?); the Review is mentioned as a possibility, not a certainty;
EU-ETS, explained on the EU web site;
Current Carbon Credit Prices: California Carbon Dashboard (12.48/ton; Oct. 1,2015)
TRADE DEAL TEXT Online (Full Text posted by New Zealand, November 3, 2015)
EcoEquity – The Civil Society Equity Report was published on November 6, 2015: Fair Shares: A Civil Society Equity Review of INDCs; See also the Summary of the Report—also at EcoEquity, see Thomas Pickety on Climate Equity, and the Climate Equity Reference Project (platform of the Civil Society Equity Review Report).